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Abstract Electron precipitation by chorus whistler‐mode waves generated by the same electron population is expected to play an important role in the dynamics of the outer radiation belt, potentially setting a hard upper limit on trapped energetic electron fluxes. Here, we statistically analyze the relationship between equatorial electron fluxes and the power of mid‐latitude cyclotron‐resonant chorus waves precipitating these electrons, both inferred from ELFIN low‐altitude energy and pitch‐angle resolved electron flux measurements in 2020–2022. We provide clear evidence of a flux limitation coinciding with an exponential increase of precipitation. We statistically demonstrate that the actual inferred resonant wave power gains are well correlated with theoretical linear gains, as in the classical Kennel‐Petschek model, for moderately high linear gains and high fluxes. However, we also find a finite occurrence of very high fluxes, corresponding to resonant waves of moderate average amplitude, implying a softer, more dynamical upper limit than traditionally envisioned. 

Abstract The strong variations of energetic electron fluxes in the Earth's inner magnetosphere are notoriously hard to forecast. Developing accurate empirical models of electron fluxes from low to high altitudes at all latitudes is therefore useful to improve our understanding of flux variations and to assess radiation hazards for spacecraft systems. In the present work, energy‐ and pitch‐angle‐resolved precipitating, trapped, and backscattered electron fluxes measured at low altitude by Electron Loss and Fields Investigation (ELFIN) CubeSats are used to infer omnidirectional fluxes at altitudes below and above the spacecraft, from 150 to 20,000 km, making use of adiabatic transport theory and quasi‐linear diffusion theory. The inferred fluxes are fitted as a function of selected parameters using a stepwise multivariate optimization procedure, providing an analytical model of omnidirectional electron flux along each geomagnetic field line, based on measurements from only one spacecraft in low Earth orbit. The modeled electron fluxes are provided as a function of ‐shell, altitude, energy, and two different indices of past substorm activity, computed over the preceding 4 hr or 3 days, potentially allowing to disentangle impulsive processes (such as rapid injections) from cumulative processes (such as inward radial diffusion and wave‐driven energization). The model is validated through comparisons with equatorial measurements from the Van Allen Probes, demonstrating the broad applicability of the present method. The model indicates that both impulsive and time‐integrated substorm activity partly control electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt and in the plasma sheet.